Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:


Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Riding The QE Wave

Whilst it is an open question as to whether QE and monetary stimulus is helping the global economy (I don’t believe it is), there is no doubt that stock markets love it. And that’s where all this central bank “free money” is heading. Global stock markets are riding the QE wave. The Shanghai Composite […]

By |March 17th, 2015|Business, Central Banks, China, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Global Currency War Update

Here’s a further Global Currency War update.

Another surprise rate cut on Friday as Russia’s central bank cuts interest rates by 2 percentage points to 15%. The dollar rose as high as Rb71.78 before falling back to Rb68.80, down 0.2 per cent on the day, as oil prices rallied.

After Russia’s cut this means that 15 […]

By |January 31st, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Monetary Madness (Continued)

Update from the front line in the Global Currency War;

Denmark’s Central Bank cuts its deposit rate for the 3rd time in 2 weeks to MINUS -0.5%
Russian Rouble sinks to a new record closing low of 68.87 a dollar, after falling 2.45% earlier in the day.
The Australian dollar falls to a more than 5-year low. […]

By |January 30th, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Super Mario Goes Ballistic

Now that Super Mario has fired his monetary bazooka, we should take a step back and see who are the winners and losers so far in 2015. The first chart normalised to 1st January shows some of them. Oil (and other industrial commodities) are the big losers so far. US stocks are now flat year […]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Business, China, Commodities, Europe, Japan, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Is This The End Of The Carry Trade?

I have seen many graphics over the past week showing the effect of the shock action by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. However, this one is my favourite (h/t Slope Of Hope ). It highlights perfectly the distortions being created in the market by the actions of the world’s […]

By |January 21st, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Volatility Of Volatility

Here’s a nice graphic showing how volatility has been rising across all asset classes the past 3 months, compared to levels seen in the earlier part of 2014. Oil volatility is close to its record high this week. FX volatility has surged to its highest level since December 2011, thanks to the explosion higher […]

By |January 17th, 2015|Business, Commodities, Europe, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Barmy Bonds

Today we’ve hit a new low in monetary madness. Overnight in New York the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell below 2% and at one stage sliced through 1.9% before recovering slightly to close at 1.94%. The result is that for the first time in history, taken together, the average 10 year bond […]

By |January 7th, 2015|Economics, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

China Growth in 2015

On RTHK Radio 3’s  “Money for Nothing” program on new year’s eve,  I made 3 predictions for 2015. Here is the second of those predictions.

China growth will fall below 6%

China’s GDP is currently growing at 7.3% as of Q3 of 2014, compared to a government target of 7.5% and actual growth of 7.7% in […]

By |January 4th, 2015|Business, China, Markets, News, United States|0 Comments

2015 Prediction

On RTHK Radio 3’s  “Money for Nothing” program on New Year’s Eve,  I made 3 predictions for 2015. This was the first of those predictions.

The S&P500 will correct by at least one-third in 2015

Actually I’ve been predicting since late summer 2014 that U.S. equity markets were on the verge of topping and likely to […]

By |January 1st, 2015|Business, China, Economics, Markets, United States|0 Comments