Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Super Mario Goes Ballistic

Now that Super Mario has fired his monetary bazooka, we should take a step back and see who are the winners and losers so far in 2015. The first chart normalised to 1st January shows some of them. Oil (and other industrial commodities) are the big losers so far. US stocks are now flat year […]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Business, China, Commodities, Europe, Japan, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Volatility Of Volatility

Here’s a nice graphic showing how volatility has been rising across all asset classes the past 3 months, compared to levels seen in the earlier part of 2014. Oil volatility is close to its record high this week. FX volatility has surged to its highest level since December 2011, thanks to the explosion higher […]

By |January 17th, 2015|Business, Commodities, Europe, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Plunging Oil Prices Are Not Good For The U.S. Economy

With last night’s almost 6% plunge in crude oil, and WTI hovering at $50 per barrel, the oil price is now down 55% since the June highs. This is the 2nd largest oil price fall in 28 years, with only the pre-Lehman collapse beating it. However, those analysts who believe that the fall in […]

By |January 8th, 2015|Business, Economics, Markets, Oil|0 Comments