Central Banks Under Fire

Influential fund managers are starting to pile in with their criticism of central banks’ zero interest policy and the global currency war that 21 of them have now joined since the beginning of the year. Pimco founder Bill Gross joined the sceptic camp a couple of months ago. And yesterday in his latest monthly […]

By |March 3rd, 2015|Business, Central Banks, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, News|0 Comments

How Greece Could Derail The ECB’s Sovereign Bond Plan

We are only 5 days into the New Year and Mario Draghi and the ECB have another headache. Like a modern day Baldrick, Mr Draghi has a cunning plan to increase inflation in the Eurozone thus forcing consumers to spend, increasing demand and hence stimulating growth in the Eurozone (he hopes). He plans to do […]

By |January 5th, 2015|Business, Economics, Europe, Markets, News, Politics|0 Comments

China Growth in 2015

On RTHK Radio 3’s  “Money for Nothing” program on new year’s eve,  I made 3 predictions for 2015. Here is the second of those predictions.

China growth will fall below 6%

China’s GDP is currently growing at 7.3% as of Q3 of 2014, compared to a government target of 7.5% and actual growth of 7.7% in […]

By |January 4th, 2015|Business, China, Markets, News, United States|0 Comments

Letter To Financial Times

My thoughts on the effects of the oil price collapse were published by the Financial Times today in the letters section. Click this link to read the letter in the online FT.  Here is the letter copied in full:

A real danger to global financial system from oil price collapse

Sir, Gavyn Davies considers (FT.com, December […]

By |December 19th, 2014|Business, Economics, Markets, News|0 Comments

“Considerable Time”

At the recent RTHK Radio 3 quiz night in aid of Operation Santa Claus, one of the questions asked was what two words have the Fed used in 2014 to describe when they are likely to raise U.S. interest rates. The answer of course was “considerable time.” These two words have caused more angst […]

By |December 17th, 2014|Business, Economics, Markets, News, United States|0 Comments

Benchmark Oil in Asia?

On Friday the China regulator, the CSRC, gave approval for the Shanghai Futures Exchange to launch a crude oil futures contract. No date was given for when trading will start. This contract will be denominated in RMB and China hopes that it will become a benchmark for oil trading in the Asia region in […]

By |December 15th, 2014|China, Markets, News|0 Comments

Rouble Revolt

Well let’s see if this works. After another plunge in the Russian rouble yesterday, the Russian Central Bank has just raised its benchmark interest rate by 6.5% from 10.5% to 17%. It did in under cover of darkness raising rates at 1 a.m.! The JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell to a new low […]

By |December 15th, 2014|Business, Economics, Europe, Markets, News|0 Comments

Operation Santa Claus

Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK), for whom I co-host Radio 3’s “Money For Nothing” program every Thursday morning, is getting into the festive spirit. Each year for the past 26 years they have organised jointly with the South China Morning Post “Operation Santa Claus”, which raises money for disadvantaged people in Hong Kong. Through […]

By |December 14th, 2014|Culture, Economics, Hong Kong, Money For Nothing, News|0 Comments

Dow’s Bad Week

I am getting to like the predictive qualities of the Hindenburg Omens (see December 3 & 11 posts). Having seen 6 such signals in 7 trading days leading into the beginning of this week, the Dow has just completed its worst weekly performance in 3 years. As described previously, a Hindenburg Omen requires several […]

By |December 13th, 2014|Markets, News, United States|0 Comments

More Hindenburg Omens

Following my comment on the “Hindenburg Omen” last week (see 3 December), 6 out of the last 7 trading days on the NYSE have triggered a Hindenburg Omen. A cluster that has not been seen in recent history. When triggered (which is not that often),  the signal remains valid for 30 trading days, and […]

By |December 11th, 2014|Markets, News, United States|0 Comments