Fed Disarray

The Fed is in complete disarray! We are 6 years into the US economic expansion and the Fed still has no idea when it is going to raise rates, how it is going to raise them and what data will finally prompt them to raise rates from zero per cent. Furthermore its economic forecasts […]

Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Riding The QE Wave

Whilst it is an open question as to whether QE and monetary stimulus is helping the global economy (I don’t believe it is), there is no doubt that stock markets love it. And that’s where all this central bank “free money” is heading. Global stock markets are riding the QE wave. The Shanghai Composite […]

By |March 17th, 2015|Business, Central Banks, China, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Australia Awareness

At last a central bank that gets it! For the Reserve Bank of Australia the penny has finally dropped. In a speech in Sydney today Philip Lowe, deputy governor at the RBA, finally admits that ultra low interest rates are failing to create demand, generate inflation or stimulate growth and that monetary stimulus has […]

By |March 5th, 2015|Australia, Business, Central Banks, Economics, Markets|0 Comments

Sensex Surge

Another day, another rate cut. The Reserve Bank of India, which has already cut rates once this year, shaves another 0.25% off the repo rate to 7.5% in a surprise move. The RBI loosened policy at an unscheduled meeting citing low inflation and pre-emptive action needed to support growth. The reaction in the stock […]

By |March 4th, 2015|Business, Emerging Markets, India, Markets|0 Comments

Central Banks Under Fire

Influential fund managers are starting to pile in with their criticism of central banks’ zero interest policy and the global currency war that 21 of them have now joined since the beginning of the year. Pimco founder Bill Gross joined the sceptic camp a couple of months ago. And yesterday in his latest monthly […]

By |March 3rd, 2015|Business, Central Banks, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, News|0 Comments

Deflating Japan

After today’s avalanche of economic data from Japan, can anyone seriously believe that 2 years of “Abenomics” has been a success? On the contrary it has simply failed to deliver what it promised which was an increase in growth and inflation. Today’s numbers show Japan perilously close to outright deflation with January year-on-year inflation […]

By |February 28th, 2015|Business, Economics, Japan, Markets|0 Comments

Global Currency War Update

Here’s a further Global Currency War update.

Another surprise rate cut on Friday as Russia’s central bank cuts interest rates by 2 percentage points to 15%. The dollar rose as high as Rb71.78 before falling back to Rb68.80, down 0.2 per cent on the day, as oil prices rallied.

After Russia’s cut this means that 15 […]

By |January 31st, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Monetary Madness (Continued)

Update from the front line in the Global Currency War;

Denmark’s Central Bank cuts its deposit rate for the 3rd time in 2 weeks to MINUS -0.5%
Russian Rouble sinks to a new record closing low of 68.87 a dollar, after falling 2.45% earlier in the day.
The Australian dollar falls to a more than 5-year low. […]

By |January 30th, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Road To Default

This is the reason why the opposition Syriza party have won a decisive victory in yesterday’s Greek elections (see chart). It is also the reason why a similar outcome (the election of a far-left anti-austerity party) is more than possible in Spain later this year. The path is now set. An end to austerity […]

By |January 25th, 2015|Europe, Markets, Politics, Uncategorized|0 Comments