Fed Disarray

The Fed is in complete disarray! We are 6 years into the US economic expansion and the Fed still has no idea when it is going to raise rates, how it is going to raise them and what data will finally prompt them to raise rates from zero per cent. Furthermore its economic forecasts […]

Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Australia Awareness

At last a central bank that gets it! For the Reserve Bank of Australia the penny has finally dropped. In a speech in Sydney today Philip Lowe, deputy governor at the RBA, finally admits that ultra low interest rates are failing to create demand, generate inflation or stimulate growth and that monetary stimulus has […]

By |March 5th, 2015|Australia, Business, Central Banks, Economics, Markets|0 Comments

Central Banks Under Fire

Influential fund managers are starting to pile in with their criticism of central banks’ zero interest policy and the global currency war that 21 of them have now joined since the beginning of the year. Pimco founder Bill Gross joined the sceptic camp a couple of months ago. And yesterday in his latest monthly […]

By |March 3rd, 2015|Business, Central Banks, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, News|0 Comments

Deflating Japan

After today’s avalanche of economic data from Japan, can anyone seriously believe that 2 years of “Abenomics” has been a success? On the contrary it has simply failed to deliver what it promised which was an increase in growth and inflation. Today’s numbers show Japan perilously close to outright deflation with January year-on-year inflation […]

By |February 28th, 2015|Business, Economics, Japan, Markets|0 Comments

Global Currency War Update

Here’s a further Global Currency War update.

Another surprise rate cut on Friday as Russia’s central bank cuts interest rates by 2 percentage points to 15%. The dollar rose as high as Rb71.78 before falling back to Rb68.80, down 0.2 per cent on the day, as oil prices rallied.

After Russia’s cut this means that 15 […]

By |January 31st, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Monetary Madness (Continued)

Update from the front line in the Global Currency War;

Denmark’s Central Bank cuts its deposit rate for the 3rd time in 2 weeks to MINUS -0.5%
Russian Rouble sinks to a new record closing low of 68.87 a dollar, after falling 2.45% earlier in the day.
The Australian dollar falls to a more than 5-year low. […]

By |January 30th, 2015|Economics, Emerging Markets, Europe, Markets, Russia, United States|0 Comments

Is This The End Of The Carry Trade?

I have seen many graphics over the past week showing the effect of the shock action by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. However, this one is my favourite (h/t Slope Of Hope ). It highlights perfectly the distortions being created in the market by the actions of the world’s […]

By |January 21st, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Swiss Avalanche

The reverberations from yesterday’s shock move by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its currency peg to the Euro are still being felt around the world. The Swiss franc soared 30% in just 13 minutes yesterday, the single largest one day move by a G10 currency in history. As hedge funds, banks, brokers […]

By |January 16th, 2015|Business, Economics, Europe, Markets|0 Comments

Golden Ruble?

The Russian ruble is no stranger to crisis. It is one of Europe’s oldest currencies and has been in use in various forms since the 13th century. Since then it has been devalued, re-denominated and crashed several times throughout its 800 year history. Its nadir came in 1924 after the civil war ended when […]

By |January 11th, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Russia|0 Comments