Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Super Mario Goes Ballistic

Now that Super Mario has fired his monetary bazooka, we should take a step back and see who are the winners and losers so far in 2015. The first chart normalised to 1st January shows some of them. Oil (and other industrial commodities) are the big losers so far. US stocks are now flat year […]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Business, China, Commodities, Europe, Japan, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Is This The End Of The Carry Trade?

I have seen many graphics over the past week showing the effect of the shock action by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. However, this one is my favourite (h/t Slope Of Hope ). It highlights perfectly the distortions being created in the market by the actions of the world’s […]

By |January 21st, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Volatility Of Volatility

Here’s a nice graphic showing how volatility has been rising across all asset classes the past 3 months, compared to levels seen in the earlier part of 2014. Oil volatility is close to its record high this week. FX volatility has surged to its highest level since December 2011, thanks to the explosion higher […]

By |January 17th, 2015|Business, Commodities, Europe, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Golden Ruble?

The Russian ruble is no stranger to crisis. It is one of Europe’s oldest currencies and has been in use in various forms since the 13th century. Since then it has been devalued, re-denominated and crashed several times throughout its 800 year history. Its nadir came in 1924 after the civil war ended when […]

By |January 11th, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Russia|0 Comments

Momentum Mayhem

There was a little noticed but important rule change over the New Year holiday period which could have a significant effect on U.S. markets. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S., which operates futures and options markets across a range of asset classes and is also the owner of the New York Stock Exchange […]

By |January 7th, 2015|Commodities, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Russia|0 Comments