Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Riding The QE Wave

Whilst it is an open question as to whether QE and monetary stimulus is helping the global economy (I don’t believe it is), there is no doubt that stock markets love it. And that’s where all this central bank “free money” is heading. Global stock markets are riding the QE wave. The Shanghai Composite […]

By |March 17th, 2015|Business, Central Banks, China, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Super Mario Goes Ballistic

Now that Super Mario has fired his monetary bazooka, we should take a step back and see who are the winners and losers so far in 2015. The first chart normalised to 1st January shows some of them. Oil (and other industrial commodities) are the big losers so far. US stocks are now flat year […]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Business, China, Commodities, Europe, Japan, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

China Growth in 2015

On RTHK Radio 3’s  “Money for Nothing” program on new year’s eve,  I made 3 predictions for 2015. Here is the second of those predictions.

China growth will fall below 6%

China’s GDP is currently growing at 7.3% as of Q3 of 2014, compared to a government target of 7.5% and actual growth of 7.7% in […]

By |January 4th, 2015|Business, China, Markets, News, United States|0 Comments

China’s New Casino

Here’s an interesting chart. Now that China’s high rollers have been driven out of Macau, perhaps they have found a bigger casino closer to home to gamble in! Macau casino revenues recorded a 30.4 per cent monthly drop in December, the biggest monthly fall since Macau started recording monthly figures in 2005. The past […]

By |January 3rd, 2015|Business, China, Greater China, Markets, Social Trends|0 Comments

2015 Prediction

On RTHK Radio 3’s  “Money for Nothing” program on New Year’s Eve,  I made 3 predictions for 2015. This was the first of those predictions.

The S&P500 will correct by at least one-third in 2015

Actually I’ve been predicting since late summer 2014 that U.S. equity markets were on the verge of topping and likely to […]

By |January 1st, 2015|Business, China, Economics, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Benchmark Oil in Asia?

On Friday the China regulator, the CSRC, gave approval for the Shanghai Futures Exchange to launch a crude oil futures contract. No date was given for when trading will start. This contract will be denominated in RMB and China hopes that it will become a benchmark for oil trading in the Asia region in […]

By |December 15th, 2014|China, Markets, News|0 Comments

China Market Surge

Shanghai joins the list of markets where bad news is good news. The trade data this morning out of China were shockingly bad. Imports plunged 6.7% year-on-year instead of the expected increase of a 3.8% rise (compared to a prior 4.6% y-o-y rise) suggesting that domestic consumption is far weaker than expected and increasing […]

By |December 8th, 2014|China, Economics, News|0 Comments