Pre FOMC Thoughts

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Riding The QE Wave

Whilst it is an open question as to whether QE and monetary stimulus is helping the global economy (I don’t believe it is), there is no doubt that stock markets love it. And that’s where all this central bank “free money” is heading. Global stock markets are riding the QE wave. The Shanghai Composite […]

By |March 17th, 2015|Business, Central Banks, China, Europe, Japan, Markets, United States|0 Comments

Australia Awareness

At last a central bank that gets it! For the Reserve Bank of Australia the penny has finally dropped. In a speech in Sydney today Philip Lowe, deputy governor at the RBA, finally admits that ultra low interest rates are failing to create demand, generate inflation or stimulate growth and that monetary stimulus has […]

By |March 5th, 2015|Australia, Business, Central Banks, Economics, Markets|0 Comments

Sensex Surge

Another day, another rate cut. The Reserve Bank of India, which has already cut rates once this year, shaves another 0.25% off the repo rate to 7.5% in a surprise move. The RBI loosened policy at an unscheduled meeting citing low inflation and pre-emptive action needed to support growth. The reaction in the stock […]

By |March 4th, 2015|Business, Emerging Markets, India, Markets|0 Comments

Central Banks Under Fire

Influential fund managers are starting to pile in with their criticism of central banks’ zero interest policy and the global currency war that 21 of them have now joined since the beginning of the year. Pimco founder Bill Gross joined the sceptic camp a couple of months ago. And yesterday in his latest monthly […]

By |March 3rd, 2015|Business, Central Banks, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, News|0 Comments

Deflating Japan

After today’s avalanche of economic data from Japan, can anyone seriously believe that 2 years of “Abenomics” has been a success? On the contrary it has simply failed to deliver what it promised which was an increase in growth and inflation. Today’s numbers show Japan perilously close to outright deflation with January year-on-year inflation […]

By |February 28th, 2015|Business, Economics, Japan, Markets|0 Comments

Super Mario Goes Ballistic

Now that Super Mario has fired his monetary bazooka, we should take a step back and see who are the winners and losers so far in 2015. The first chart normalised to 1st January shows some of them. Oil (and other industrial commodities) are the big losers so far. US stocks are now flat year […]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Business, China, Commodities, Europe, Japan, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Volatility Of Volatility

Here’s a nice graphic showing how volatility has been rising across all asset classes the past 3 months, compared to levels seen in the earlier part of 2014. Oil volatility is close to its record high this week. FX volatility has surged to its highest level since December 2011, thanks to the explosion higher […]

By |January 17th, 2015|Business, Commodities, Europe, Markets, Oil, United States|0 Comments

Swiss Avalanche

The reverberations from yesterday’s shock move by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its currency peg to the Euro are still being felt around the world. The Swiss franc soared 30% in just 13 minutes yesterday, the single largest one day move by a G10 currency in history. As hedge funds, banks, brokers […]

By |January 16th, 2015|Business, Economics, Europe, Markets|0 Comments

Plunging Oil Prices Are Not Good For The U.S. Economy

With last night’s almost 6% plunge in crude oil, and WTI hovering at $50 per barrel, the oil price is now down 55% since the June highs. This is the 2nd largest oil price fall in 28 years, with only the pre-Lehman collapse beating it. However, those analysts who believe that the fall in […]

By |January 8th, 2015|Business, Economics, Markets, Oil|0 Comments