May 2015

Fed Disarray

By |May 19th, 2015|

The Fed is in complete disarray! We are 6 years into the US economic expansion and the Fed still has no idea when it is going to raise rates, how it is going to raise them and what data will finally prompt them to raise rates from zero per cent. Furthermore its economic forecasts […]

March 2015

Pre FOMC Thoughts

By |March 18th, 2015|

Here is the link to my interview today on Bloomberg TV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-missed-the-boat-on-raising-rates-lewis

Followed by my brief notes which formed the basis of the interview:

US MARKETS

Macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections are all declining. EPS growth for the first quarter of this year could end up negative, due to the strong dollar and declining […]

Riding The QE Wave

By |March 17th, 2015|

Whilst it is an open question as to whether QE and monetary stimulus is helping the global economy (I don’t believe it is), there is no doubt that stock markets love it. And that’s where all this central bank “free money” is heading. Global stock markets are riding the QE wave. The Shanghai Composite […]

February 2014

Welcome To My Blog

By |February 28th, 2014|

Welcome to my blog. I hope this will be the first of many posts to provide some thoughts on topics of interest to me: finance, economics, politics, global affairs, technology, media, travel and social trends. These intersecting topics provide an abundance of material to comment on. I can’t promise to post everyday but rather […]

March 2015

Australia Awareness

By |March 5th, 2015|

At last a central bank that gets it! For the Reserve Bank of Australia the penny has finally dropped. In a speech in Sydney today Philip Lowe, deputy governor at the RBA, finally admits that ultra low interest rates are failing to create demand, generate inflation or stimulate growth and that monetary stimulus has […]

Sensex Surge

By |March 4th, 2015|

Another day, another rate cut. The Reserve Bank of India, which has already cut rates once this year, shaves another 0.25% off the repo rate to 7.5% in a surprise move. The RBI loosened policy at an unscheduled meeting citing low inflation and pre-emptive action needed to support growth. The reaction in the stock […]

Central Banks Under Fire

By |March 3rd, 2015|

Influential fund managers are starting to pile in with their criticism of central banks’ zero interest policy and the global currency war that 21 of them have now joined since the beginning of the year. Pimco founder Bill Gross joined the sceptic camp a couple of months ago. And yesterday in his latest monthly […]

February 2015

Deflating Japan

By |February 28th, 2015|

After today’s avalanche of economic data from Japan, can anyone seriously believe that 2 years of “Abenomics” has been a success? On the contrary it has simply failed to deliver what it promised which was an increase in growth and inflation. Today’s numbers show Japan perilously close to outright deflation with January year-on-year inflation […]

January 2015

Global Currency War Update

By |January 31st, 2015|

Here’s a further Global Currency War update.

Another surprise rate cut on Friday as Russia’s central bank cuts interest rates by 2 percentage points to 15%. The dollar rose as high as Rb71.78 before falling back to Rb68.80, down 0.2 per cent on the day, as oil prices rallied.

After Russia’s cut this means that 15 […]

Monetary Madness (Continued)

By |January 30th, 2015|

Update from the front line in the Global Currency War;

Denmark’s Central Bank cuts its deposit rate for the 3rd time in 2 weeks to MINUS -0.5%
Russian Rouble sinks to a new record closing low of 68.87 a dollar, after falling 2.45% earlier in the day.
The Australian dollar falls to a more than 5-year low. […]

Road To Default

By |January 25th, 2015|

This is the reason why the opposition Syriza party have won a decisive victory in yesterday’s Greek elections (see chart). It is also the reason why a similar outcome (the election of a far-left anti-austerity party) is more than possible in Spain later this year. The path is now set. An end to austerity […]